Ear to the People – Ukraine

AUGUST 2023

PUBLIC OPINION ON US POLICY TOWARDS UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR

ISSUE #2

Key Takeaways

  • A large bipartisan majority supports the US providing military assistance to help Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence.
  • When US support to Ukraine is framed only in terms of financial assistance support drops to a modest majority or a plurality, with Republicans at most divided. 
  • Bipartisan majorities or pluralities support sending both light and advanced weapons, and defense systems.
  • A very large bipartisan majority supports the US sending humanitarian aid.
  • Majorities prefer that the US support Ukraine’s position of not entering peace negotiations until Russia has first committed to withdraw its forces or until Ukraine has reclaimed its territory, even if this stance results in a prolonged conflict.  While a clear majority of Democrats favor this position, Republicans’ views are more mixed.

Whether the US should provide military equipment, training, intelligence

A bipartisan seven-in-ten supports the US providing military assistance to Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence.  Republican support is lower, but still a majority.  

When provided with background information and pro and con arguments:

  • 69% favored “the US continuing to provide military assistance to Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence” (Republicans 55%, Democrats 87%, independents 58%) (Program for Public Consultation, July 2023)

Standard Polls:

Whether the US should provide funding

Standard Polls:

When US support to help Ukraine fight against Russia is framed only in terms of financial assistance, without specifying how the funding would be used, a small majority or plurality are in support, but less than half of Republicans.

  • 54% said the US should, “send financial aid to Ukraine, in addition to sending weapons,” including 72% of Democrats, but just 39% of Republicans. (Reuters/Ipsos, June 2023)
  • In a question in which “not sure” was offered, a clear plurality of 48% said the US should “continue to give money to Ukraine to help it defend itself from the Russian invasion,” with 31% opposed and 22% saying “not sure.”  Republicans were divided with 39% in favor and 42% opposed, while 68% of Democrats were in favor. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022) (See Note below on providing a “not sure” option.)
  • In a question that asked whether Congress should “authorize additional funding to support Ukraine” 45% were in favor with 55% opposed.  This number may be lower than the Reuters/Ipsos poll because some respondents may have interpreted “additional funding” to mean over and above the present level. Just 28% of Republicans were in favor, with 71% opposed. Among Democrats, 62% were in favor.  (CNN, August 2023)

What types of military equipment should the US send

Bipartisan majorities or pluralities support sending both light and advanced weapons, and defense systems.

When provided with background information and pro and con arguments:

  • 73% approved of the US allowing NATO allies to send US-made fighter jets to Ukraine, and the US training Ukrainian pilots to operate them (Democrats 86%, Republicans 63%, independents 64%) (Program for Public Consultation, July 2023)

Standard Polls:

Note: When polls offer a “not sure” option, a substantial percent will choose that option, lowering the total percent in support or opposition. Research shows that this is not because those people lack any view on the policy or are undecided, but that they are expressing their lack of certainty about whether their view is correct.  When the “not sure” option is not offered, most will choose an option that expresses a view.

  • A plurality of 45% supported the US sending “Advanced weapon systems (for example, helicopters, cannons, armored vehicles)” with 29% opposed and 26% “not sure”. Among Democrats, 59% are in favor. Among Republicans, 45% are in favor and 36% opposed. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022)
  • A plurality of 46% supported “Long-range missiles” with 31% opposed and 23% “not sure”. Among Democrats, 67% are in favor. Among Republicans, 40% are in favor and 35% opposed. (Economist/YouGov, March 2023)
  • 53% supported “Tanks,” including 67% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans (with 35% opposed). (Economist/YouGov, March 2023)
  • 54% supported “Light weapon systems (for example anti-tank weapons, rifles, ammunition)” (Democrats 67%, Republicans 53%), with 34% opposed and 22% “not sure”. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022)
  • A plurality of 47% supported “the Patriot missile defense system, a surface-to-air guided missile system, in order to help Ukraine defend itself from the Russian invasion,” with 29% opposed and 26% “not sure”. Among Democrats, 61% were in support. Among Republicans 45% are in support and 37% opposed. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022)
  • 61% supported the US sending “Non-lethal military assistance (for example trucks, repair parts, computers, radars)” (Democrats 74%, Republicans 60%), with 20% opposed and 19% “not sure”. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022)

Whether the US should provide humanitarian aid

A very large bipartisan majority supports the US sending humanitarian aid, such as food and shelter, and aid for infrastructure repair.

When provided with background information and pro and con arguments:

Standard Polls:

Whether Ukraine Should be Encouraged to Enter Negotiations 

Majorities prefer that the US support Ukraine’s position of not entering peace negotiations until Russia has first committed to withdraw its forces or until Ukraine has reclaimed its territory, even if this stance results in a prolonged conflict.  While a clear majority of Democrats favor this position, Republican views are more mixed. 

When provided with background information and pro and con arguments:

  • 56% opposed the US “encourag[ing] Ukraine to enter into negotiations, whether or not Russia first commits to withdraw from all of Ukraine.” Majorities of Democrats and independents were opposed (68% and 53%, respectively). Among Republicans, less than half were opposed (47%, should encourage negotiations now 53%). (Program for Public Consultation, July 2023)

Standard Polls:

  • In June 2023, 62% said the US should “support Ukraine in reclaiming territory Russia has captured, even if it results in a more prolonged conflict between the two nations,” with 36% saying the US should instead, “try to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even if it means allowing Russia to keep territory it has captured from Ukraine.” Among Democrats, 79% said the US should support Ukraine reclaiming territory. Republicans are divided (47% to 49%).  (Gallup, June 2023)

When the poll included non-committal options, the total percentage in support dropped to a plurality:

  • A bipartisan plurality of 46% preferred that the US “support Ukraine in its efforts against Russia until such a time that Russia withdraws from the country, even if this means the war and its effects last longer,” with 24% saying the US should instead “encourage a negotiated peace to end the fighting, even if this means Russia still has control over some parts of Ukraine,” with 13% saying “neither” and 17% “don’t know”.  Among Democrats, 61% said the US should support Ukraine until Russia withdraws, as did a plurality of Republicans (41% to 30%). (YouGov, February 2023)

Is Support Going Down?

Polls have shown some changes in public opinion towards aid to Ukraine since the start of the war. Support for providing military aid started very high at seven-in-ten, gradually declined, but then recovered to two-thirds and has stayed there since. The percentage saying the US is providing too much aid in general has gradually increased but is still less than 3-in-10. Republicans, however, have reached a plurality saying it is too much.

Providing military aid to Ukraine:

  • Support for the US “provid[ing] weapons to Ukraine” started at 71% in March 2022, declined to 66% in October 2022, then to 58% in February 2023, and increased to 65% in June 2023. (Reuters/Ipsos)
  • As noted, a PPC survey in June 2023 found 69% in support of continuing to provide military aid. (Program for Public Consultation)

Amount of aid in general to Ukraine:

  • In Pew Research Center surveys, respondents were asked whether the US, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was providing Ukraine with too much, too little, or about the right amount of aid. Those who said the US was providing too much aid was just 7% in March 2022, increased to 20% in September 2022 and then reached a high point of 28% in June 2023. Among Republicans, those saying too much started at a low of 9%, increased substantially to 32% and then reached a plurality of 47% (with 34% saying too little or about right). A Fox News poll in August 2023 found 36% saying the US should be doing less, “to help Ukraine in its war with Russia,” including a majority of Republicans (56%).