Ukraine-Russia War

In March of 2022, Russia launched a full invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations, including the US, quickly declared this invasion to be an act of aggression that violates Ukraine’s national sovereignty as guaranteed by the UN Charter. The invasion triggered a series of debates over the US’ role in this conflict:

  • the degree of US intervention, if any;
  • how to weigh any benefits of intervention against the risk of Russia escalating to nuclear attacks;
  • whether to press Ukraine to enter peace negotiations, and if so, under what conditions.


Respondents were provided a detailed briefing that included information about the history and circumstances leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including perspectives on the role played by NATO, and the 2014 political uprising in Ukraine known as the Maidan Revolution and its aftermath.

Respondents were first told:

This survey will ask you questions about what you think US policy should be regarding the Ukraine-Russian war.

As you may know, this conflict started in 2014 and escalated in 2022, when the Russian government launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine. 

You will have the opportunity to give your opinion on what US policy should be for the following: 

  • Whether the US should continue to provide military aid to Ukraine
  • Whether the US should continue to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine
  • Whether the US should have agreed to let other NATO countries provide Ukraine with US-made fighter jets, and for the US to train Ukrainian pilots on how to use them
  • Whether the US should press Ukraine to start negotiating a peace deal with Russia

They were provided information about Ukraine’s relation to Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the role that NATO expansion has played in that relationship:

Ukraine shares a border with Russia. In the 1920s, Ukraine became one of the founding republics of the Soviet Union, along with Russia. 

In 1991, the Soviet Union came apart. Ukraine became an independent nation recognized by the United Nations, the US and Russia.

Soon after, a number of Eastern European nations who were former members of the Soviet Union expressed interest in joining the military alliance NATO, which includes the US and many western European nations. US leaders were also encouraging them to join, while Russia was strongly opposed. In 1999 Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic became NATO members.

In 2000, Vladimir Putin became President of Russia. He expressed strong concern that nations close to Russia were forming ties with the US and Western Europe. 

There has been a lot of controversy over NATO expansion. 

According to leaders of the Russian government, after the Soviet Union came apart, the US and other European leaders said NATO would not expand any closer to Russia.  When NATO started accepting new members the Russian government felt that promise had been broken, and that their security was at risk.

On the other side, US and Western European leaders have said they made no promise not to expand NATO closer to Russia, and that those nations chose to join NATO on their own. There is a debate among Western scholars about whether at the time the US made such promises, either implicitly or explicitly.

When NATO said that the Republic of Georgia, which is on Russia’s border, could eventually become part of NATO, Russia expressed strong disapproval and increased its military presence in Georgia. This led to a military conflict.

They were then informed about the divisions within Ukraine with regards to Ukraine’s alliances to Russia and Europe; and the 2014 political uprising known as the Maidan Revolution, and its aftermath:

There has been a division within Ukraine, between those who want to increase ties with Europe, who are mainly in the western part of Ukraine, and those who want to increase ties with Russia, who are mainly in the eastern part.  

In 2013, the Ukrainian Parliament took steps toward joining the European Union. However, the President at the time blocked it. This contributed to a major political uprising in 2014. The Parliament removed the President, opening the door to moving closer to Europe.  

In response, the Russian government started amassing troops on the border of Ukraine.

During this political uprising, groups in the eastern part of Ukraine that wanted to be closer to Russia overthrew their local governments, with Russian military assistance. 

Majorities in two areas voted to become independent, and one area – Crimea – voted to become part of Russia. However, these votes have been widely criticized because independent observers were not allowed to witness the vote counting, and Russian and pro-Russian military forces were present at the time of voting. The Russian government then incorporated Crimea into Russia.

The Ukrainian government and most countries still consider these areas to be part of Ukraine. 

Since 2014, the Ukrainian government has been moving closer to Europe, which has been supported by a growing majority of the Ukrainian public.  Ukraine is moving toward becoming part of the European Union. Ukraine is also making moves toward joining NATO and has been getting military training and weapons from NATO and participating in joint military exercises. 

Russia strongly opposed Ukraine moving closer to Europe and NATO and said that it threatened Russia’s vital security interests.

They were informed of the 2022 invasion and the response by the international community:

Then in February 2022, the Russian government launched a full attack on Ukraine. Russia’s stated intention was to overthrow the Ukrainian government and bring Ukraine closer to Russia.

In response, the UN General Assembly condemned the attack as a violation of the UN Charter that prohibits Members from invading another state. The vote was 141 in favor and 5 opposed, with 47 abstaining or absent. China and India abstained and have not condemned the invasion.

The US and several dozen other nations have:

  • placed economic sanctions on Russia, primarily by not purchasing Russian oil and making it harder for Russia to do business internationally.
  • provided military assistance to the Ukrainian military, such as weapons and training.
  • provided humanitarian and financial assistance.

Lastly, they were informed about the current state of the war (as of June 2023):

Since the invasion, Russia has gained military control over about 15% of Ukraine. Russia has declared a large portion of the eastern part of Ukraine to now be part of Russia and has begun to incorporate those areas, for example by introducing Russian currency. 

The Ukrainian military has been surprisingly successful in stopping Russian advances, as well as taking back some areas that were captured by Russia.

The US Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that the war has resulted in: 

  • 17,000 Ukrainians killed and 110,000 injured
  • 40,000 Russians killed and 170,000 injured 

The UN estimates that about 13 million Ukrainians have fled their homes (about a third of the total Ukrainian population) to get away from the battles.

Survey: PPC, August 2024 

Asked whether they favor, “the US continuing to provide military assistance to Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence,” 67% were in favor, including 57% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 59% of independents.

More Details:

Briefing
Respondents were first provided a briefing on the history of Ukraine-Russia relations, including the Ukrainian civil war and the annexation of Crimea by Russia, as well as the tensions between NATO and Russia.

They were then presented a briefing on US military assistance to Ukraine, as follows:

We will now turn to a key question: whether the US should continue to provide military and other assistance to Ukraine. 

As you may know, the US has been providing the Ukrainian military: military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence. It is difficult to put a dollar value on this assistance, as much of the military equipment provided is fairly old and used, but it is roughly some tens of billions of dollars. 

European countries have been providing an equivalent amount of military assistance.

Arguments
The first argument in favor, that Russia has violated international law which the US has a duty to uphold, did very well.. It was found convincing by an overwhelming bipartisan majority of 79% (Republicans 74%, Democrats 86%). The first con argument, that US involvement risks escalating the conflict to a nuclear war, was found convincing by 60%, including just 68% of Republicans but just over half of Democrats (54%).

The second argument in favor, that it is important for US security that Russia does not gain a foothold in Europe, was found convincing by a very large bipartisan majority of 80% (Republicans 75%, Democrats 87%). The second con argument countered that Europe is fully capable of handling the problem itself and challenged the idea that failing to respond to the conflict threatens world order, was found convincing by 59%, including 68% of Republicans and independents, but only half of Democrats (51%).

Final Recommendation
Asked whether they favor, “the US continuing to provide military assistance to Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition, training and intelligence,” 67% were in favor, including 57% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 59% of independents.

Demographics

Results in Six Swing States
The survey was also fielded in six swing states: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA and WI. Across all swing states, large majorities of 64-71% were in favor, including majorities of Democrats (73-85%).

Among Republicans, majorities were in favor in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (56-60%), while in Michigan and Nevada they were evenly divided. However, majorities of Republicans in Michigan (57%) and Nevada (61%) find it at least “tolerable” (rating the proposal 5 or higher on a 0-10 scale measuring its acceptability).

Results from Past PPC Survey
A 2023 survey by PPC asked about the same exact proposal, and found 69% in favor, including 55% of Republicans, 87% of Democrats and 58% of independents. Thus, support for continuing to provide military aid to Ukraine did not change much from 2023 to 2024 – overall and among Republicans and independents the changes are within the confidence intervals (i.e. margins of error). However, among Democrats support dropped by eight points (from 87% to 79%).

Results from Standard Polls
Bipartisan majorities of Americans have supported the US giving military aid to Ukraine. Support declined after the first few months of the war, driven primarily by Republicans, but has remained a majority and has recently ticked up.

  • Asked, "Thinking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, do you think the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine, not enough or the right amount," 69% said the right amount (23%) or not enough (46%), including 92% of Democrats and 70% of independents, but just 43% of Republicans. (Gallup, March 2025). Asked the same question in December 2024, 61% were in support. 
  • 65% said the US should, “provide weapons to Ukraine” (Democrats 81%, Republicans 56%, independents 57%) (Reuters/Ipsos, June 2023). This is up from when the same question was asked in February 2023, when 58% said the US should provide weapons (Democrats 73%, Republicans 52%) (Reuters/Ipsos, February 2023). Asked the same question in October 2022, 66% said the US should provide weapons (Reuters/Ipsos, October 2022)
  • 75% said the US should, “supply Ukraine with military equipment” (Democrats 88%, Republicans 63%, independents 64%) (UMD Critical Issues, June 2022
  • 72% said the US should, “send weapons and supplies to Ukraine” (Democrats 80%, Republicans 71%, independents 68%) (CBS News/YouGov, April 2022)
  • 83% said the US should, “supply Ukraine with military equipment” (UMD Critical Issues, March 2022)

When offered a non-committal option (e.g. not sure, neither favor nor oppose), around one-fifth choose that option, lowering the total percent in support.

  • A plurality of 48% favored the US, “providing weapons to Ukraine,” including 63% of Democrats but just 39% of Republicans (37% opposed), with 22% choosing neither favor nor oppose. (AP-NORC, January 2023) This is down from May 2022, when 60% were in support with 20% choosing neither, including 72% of Democrats and a majority of Republicans (53%). (AP-NORC, May 2022)
  • 53% said the US should, “continue to give weapons to Ukraine to help it defend itself from the Russian invasion,” with 25% saying no and 22% “not sure”. Among Democrats, 75% said yes. Among Republicans, 50% said yes and 31% said no. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022)
  • 59% said the US should, “provide weapons such as guns and anti-tank weapons to the Ukrainian military,” partisan breakouts were not provided (Ipsos, December 2022). This is up from April 2022, when 54% held that position. (Ipsos, April 2022)

When US support to help Ukraine fight against Russia is framed only in terms of financial assistance, without specifying how the funding would be used, a small majority or plurality are in support, but less than half of Republicans.

  • 54% said the US should, “send financial aid to Ukraine, in addition to sending weapons,” including 72% of Democrats, but just 39% of Republicans. (Reuters/Ipsos, June 2023)
  • In a question in which “not sure” was offered, a clear plurality of 48% said the US should “continue to give money to Ukraine to help it defend itself from the Russian invasion,” with 31% opposed and 22% saying “not sure.”  Republicans were divided with 39% in favor and 42% opposed, while 68% of Democrats were in favor. (Economist/YouGov, December 2022)

One question asked whether Congress should “authorize additional funding to support Ukraine.” However the question does not make it clear whether “additional funding” this would entail an increase over and above the current levels of funding. Based on responses to other questions it appears that is how it was interpreted by a substantial number of respondents. Just 45% were in favor with 55% opposed, with 28% of Republicans in favor and 71% opposed. Among Democrats, 62% were in favor (CNN, August 2023)

Survey: PPC, August 2024 

Respondents were told that:

Both the US and European countries have also been giving Ukraine humanitarian aid, including providing food and shelter, and helping them repair access to water and electricity. So far, the US has given about $39 billion in such assistance.  The Europeans have contributed an equivalent amount and have also accepted more than a million Ukrainian refugees into their countries. Another proposal is for the US to continue giving humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

Asked whether they favor, “the US to continue giving humanitarian assistance to Ukraine,” a bipartisan majority of 74% were in favor, including 65% of Republicans, 84% of Democrats and 69% of independents.

Demographics

Results in Six Swing States
The survey was also fielded in six swing states: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA and WI. 

Results from Past PPC Survey
A 2023 survey by PPC asked about the same proposal, and found 80% in favor, including 92% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 73% of independents. Thus support for continuing to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine dropped slightly from 2023 to 2024 – overall by six points, among Republicans by seven points, and among Democrats eight points.

Survey: PPC 2023

Respondents were asked whether they approve of the US-NATO agreement, by which the US would:

  • let other NATO countries provide Ukraine with fighter jets they bought from the US and to
  • provide training to Ukrainians on how to operate those fighter jets

Asked for their final recommendation, 73% approved, including 63% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 64% of independents.

Majorities in all types of congressional districts were in favor of the fighter jet agreement, from very red to very blue districts, with no significant variation.

More Details:

Briefing

Respondents were briefed on this topic, as follows:

Now let’s turn to a specific type of military equipment that Ukraine has been asking the US and other NATO members for – fighter jets.

Until recently only a few NATO countries provided a limited number of fighter jets to Ukraine, and Ukraine has asked for more. NATO countries did have more fighter jets they had bought from the US, but the US did not permit them to transfer them to Ukraine (A condition of the sale was that the US can say who they may transfer the jets to.) 

Recently, at the urging of other NATO members, the US shifted its positions and agreed to allow them to provide those fighter jets to Ukraine. The US also agreed to provide training to Ukrainian pilots on how to operate these fighter jets. Whether the US should have agreed to this has been debated.

Arguments

The first argument in support stated that this type of advanced military equipment is essential for Ukraine to push back Russian forces, and was found convincing by 75% (Republicans 67%, Democrats 86%). The argument against, that this sends an escalatory signal to Russia who could respond with a nuclear attack, was found convincing by 58%, including 66% of Republicans, but just 47% of Democrats.
The second argument in support, that the US and NATO have been sending more advanced weaponry to Ukraine without any escalation by Russia, was found convincing by 73% (Republicans 65%, Democrats 85%). The argument against asserted that, according to the Department of Defense, fighter jets aren’t useful or necessary for Ukraine’s military success, and was found convincing by just 50%, including a small majority of Republicans (55%), but just 42% of Democrats.

Final Recommendation

They were again presented the US-NATO agreement by which the US would:

  • let other NATO countries provide Ukraine with fighter jets they bought from the US and to
  • provide training to Ukrainians on how to operate those fighter jets

Asked for their final recommendation, 73% approved, including 63% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 64% of independents.

Majorities in all types of congressional districts were in favor of the fighter jet agreement, from very red to very blue districts, with no significant variation.

Demographics